32 Church St

Middleport, NY 14105

$163,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax + insurance: −$353
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-843/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $45,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-843/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (11.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $144k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#700 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Royalton-Hartland Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #362 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $163k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.