3930 Taylor Rd

Orchard Park, NY 14127

$359,900D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,076 sqft · Built 1989 · MultiFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$749
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,735/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-72/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (12.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $315k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#39 in NY, #587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.5% in Orchard Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.