503 W Palace

Geneseo, IL 61252

$199,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-402/mo
• Annual: $-4,821/yr
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (39.4% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 9651% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $200k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 6.5% in Geneseo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.