8902 Marilyn Dr

Frisco, TX 75033

$259,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-421/mo
• Annual: $-5,050/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#48 in TX, #1,943 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Frisco ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #14 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.2% in Frisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($175k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.