444 Neptune Ave Unit 5E

New York, NY 11224

$459,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built — · Condo · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$766
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$834
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-505/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $128,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $460k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-505/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (13.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $397k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,970/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: ceiling in bedroom — Significant damage and holes visible in the ceiling
• Minor: paint in bedroom — Some wear visible on the painted walls