404 E 4th St

Trenton, TN 38382

$73,700C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 897 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$386
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $201/mo
• Annual: $2,411/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $20,636

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($847 rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $510 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#408 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Trenton (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #99 of 139 in TN (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gibson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.