93 Silver Oaks Cir Unit 3-101

Vineyards, FL 34119

$429,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$726
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$888
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $330/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $423k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $423k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineyards Elementary School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 845 students, 27% FRL); Oakridge Middle School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,183 students, 26% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 55% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.