213 Lumber St

Lincolnton, GA 30817

$165,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $665/mo
• Annual: $7,980/yr
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.27%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#352 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #71 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln County Elementary School (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 606 students, 57% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #122 of 470 statewide, top 26%, 258 students, 57% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 367 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $165k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.6% in Lincolnton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.