3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,186 sqft ·
Built 1955
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,487/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,100
Tax + insurance
−$123
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$312
Net cashflow
$-48/mo
Annual
$-576/yr
Cap rate
6.02%
Cash-on-cash
-0.98%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$58,716
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (4.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (29.1% below list).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $149k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
Lake Ridge New Tech Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #287 of 301 in IN (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $6k; list at $210k implies a 3713% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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