2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Condo
· Pending
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,817/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$567
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$382
Net cashflow
$-26/mo
Annual
$-306/yr
Cap rate
6.09%
Cash-on-cash
-0.73%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
1.21%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-306/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Leila Davis Elementary School (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 665 students, 35% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Dunedin High School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,203 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 293 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $150k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4NVD577ARY5VMF
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29