2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,156/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$98
HOA
−$17
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$243
Net cashflow
$484/mo
Annual
$5,804/yr
Cap rate
15.97%
Cash-on-cash
34.55%
DSCR
2.54
1% rule
1.93%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4NY3PCDF2E1PPM
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29