14140 88th Ave

Indian Shores, FL 33776

$279,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$539
• HOA: −$251
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-194/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#234 in FL, #3,685 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Richard O Jacobson Technical High School At Seminole (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 578 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.1% in Indian Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.