11350 Sarah Jane Ln #65

Prescott Valley, AZ 86327

$235,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax + insurance: −$393
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,632/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $66,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.