14 Shady Crk Dr

Saucier, MS 39561

$115,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Pending · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,041/yr
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.44%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#91 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stone County School District (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #15 of 130 in MS (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.4% in Saucier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.