2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Pending
· 300 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,254/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,169
Tax + insurance
−$372
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$683
Net cashflow
$1,030/mo
Annual
$12,359/yr
Cap rate
11.83%
Cash-on-cash
19.79%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.46%
Cash to close
$62,440
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $223k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $223k).
It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,254/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 7823% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4PZ2XK3J5HY257
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29