1214 Hawks Nest Lane Ln

Moneta, VA 24121

$192,999B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $538/mo
• Annual: $6,457/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $54,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $193k implies a 451% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.9% in Moneta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.