58 Post Oak Cir

Arnoldsville, GA 30630

$269,999D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-342/mo
• Annual: $-4,107/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (36.3% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $172k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#566 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Oglethorpe County (rural): math 40% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #58 of 174 in GA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 140 units permitted in Oglethorpe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oglethorpe County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $270k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.