707 N Gray St

Sidell, IL 61876

$82,500B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,345/yr
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.48%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#633 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Zoned schools: Salt Fork South Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 164 students, 0% FRL); Salt Fork Junior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #256 of 665 statewide, top 41%, 186 students, 0% FRL); Salt Fork High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 247 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Vermilion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vermilion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $82k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.