22440 California St

St. Clair Shores, MI 48080

$200,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,662/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-107/mo
• Annual: $-1,279/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (16.9% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Lake Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #470 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Elmwood Elementary School (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,032 of 1,397 statewide, top 74%, 345 students, 61% FRL); South Lake Middle School (math 7% / reading 23%, grade F, #451 of 493 statewide, top 92%, 299 students, 66% FRL); South Lake High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #640 of 713 statewide, top 91%, 516 students, 61% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Clair Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.