000 No Real Property

Sterling, AK 99672

$54,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 473 sqft · Built 2001 · Other · Active · 252 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $814/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $264/mo
• Annual: $3,164/yr
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.58%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($814 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#30 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 16 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 1.4% in Sterling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered appearance suggests potential damage.
• Moderate: Roof — No visible damage, but may need inspection for any issues.
• Moderate: Exterior paint — Siding appears weathered, indicating potential need for repainting.
• Minor: Flooring — Carpeted areas appear in fair condition, but may need cleaning or replacement if worn.