21155 Gosling Rd Unit 33A-D

Houston, TX 77388

$695,000D+

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 6,604 sqft · Built 2019 · MultiFamily · Active · 347 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$1,158
• HOA: −$1,284
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,530
• Net cashflow: $-329/mo
• Annual: $-3,954/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $695k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-82/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $647k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $695k).
• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($612k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $612k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mueller El (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 626 students, 45% FRL); Krimmel Intermed (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 42% FRL); Klein Oak H S (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 3,621 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?