5851 Quantrell Ave #406

Alexandria, VA 22312

$125,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,772/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$549
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-845/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (9.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in VA, #1,453 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Alexandria City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #87 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Ramsay Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 607 students, 90% FRL); Francis C. Hammond Middle (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #312 of 342 statewide, top 91%, 1,473 students, 78% FRL); Alexandria City High School (math 42% / reading 75%, grade C, #260 of 319 statewide, top 82%, 4,531 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 45% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 25 units permitted in Alexandria city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alexandria County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $125k implies a 390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.1% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.