510 Highway 92 W

Fairfield Bay, AR 72067

$73,900A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $395/mo
• Annual: $4,737/yr
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.89%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $20,692

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($511 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.