3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,296 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Manufactured
· Active
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,095/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$81
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$440
Net cashflow
$1,024/mo
Annual
$12,284/yr
Cap rate
17.99%
Cash-on-cash
41.78%
DSCR
2.86
1% rule
2.00%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Palmdale Learning Plaza (783 students, 80% FRL); Cactus Medical Health And Technology Magnet Academy (865 students, 92% FRL); Palmdale High (2,443 students, 74% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 2→5/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 4.3% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: kitchen cabinets
— Older, outdated design
Major: bathroom fixtures
— Outdated and cluttered
Major: flooring
— Worn and in need of replacement
CashFlowRE · CFR-4TGN3YB957SHTX
· Data 3 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29