124 Harrogate

Harris Hill, NY 14221

$249,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,667/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$491
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-110/mo
• Annual: $-1,319/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.