Churchill (Dry Fork) Plan

Hooven, OH 45002

$85,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$470
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,480/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.45%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $24,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,194 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Southwest Local (town): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #222 of 656 in OH (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Miami Whitewater Elementary School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #729 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 670 students, 39% FRL); Harrison Middle School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B, #280 of 654 statewide, top 44%, 1,070 students, 30% FRL); William Henry Harrison High School (math 43% / reading 60%, grade D+, #371 of 781 statewide, top 48%, 1,166 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.