38 Mettler St

New Haven, CT 06525

$489,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,063/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$853
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,892/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-79/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $406k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Woodbridge School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #5 of 153 in CT (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beecher Road School (math 71% / reading 79%, grade A, #43 of 553 statewide, top 8%, 847 students, 14% FRL); Amity Middle School: Bethany (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #34 of 175 statewide, top 20%, 365 students, 16% FRL); Amity Regional High School (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #26 of 194 statewide, top 16%, 1,318 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $489k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in New Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?