6 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,430 sqft ·
Built 1880
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 125 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,680/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$894
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$773
Net cashflow
$939/mo
Annual
$11,263/yr
Cap rate
14.48%
Cash-on-cash
29.25%
DSCR
2.30
1% rule
1.80%
Cash to close
$57,400
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $939 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $469/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $205k).
It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#51 in NY, #786 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D.
Watervliet City School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #524 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $71k; list at $205k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 5.9% in Watervliet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,680/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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