5750 Via Real #243

Carpinteria, CA 93013

$369,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,346
• Net cashflow: $2,512/mo
• Annual: $30,141/yr
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.17%
• DSCR: 2.30
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $369k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#283 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canalino Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 498 students, 62% FRL); Carpinteria Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 406 students, 81% FRL); Carpinteria Senior High (math 15% / reading 47%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 653 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.2%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $369k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.0% in Carpinteria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,407/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 718% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.