102 Tory Lynn Dr

Napavine, WA 98596

$175,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $472/mo
• Annual: $5,665/yr
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.56%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#384 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Toledo School District (rural): math 51% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #88 of 291 in WA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.8% in Napavine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.