5878 Mebane Ave #17

Dublin, VA 24084

$159,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,066 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $242/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($242/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#251 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dublin Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 436 students, 79% FRL); Pulaski County Middle (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 807 students, 77% FRL); Pulaski County Senior High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,246 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 47% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $160k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.