29 Danny St

Castle Rock, CO 80109

$100,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $919/mo
• Annual: $11,032/yr
• Cap rate: 17.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.40%
• DSCR: 2.75
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $919 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,469 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Douglas County School District No. RE-1 (suburban): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #7 of 86 in CO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,131 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (950 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.1% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($155k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.