10240 Norrell Rd

Midlothian, TX 76084

$312,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax + insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,388/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $87,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $313k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maypearl ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #325 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maypearl Pri (187 students, 48% FRL); Maypearl Middle (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 306 students, 42% FRL); Maypearl H S (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 363 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.