3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,616 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 128 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,821/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$314
Tax + insurance
−$157
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,012
Net cashflow
$3,338/mo
Annual
$40,052/yr
Cap rate
73.16%
Cash-on-cash
238.80%
DSCR
11.63
1% rule
8.05%
Cash to close
$16,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 48 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29