127 VAN HORNE St #1

Jersey City, NJ 07304

$275,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 741 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $321/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($321/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rev. Dr. Ercel F. Webb School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,192 of 1,303 statewide, top 92%, 741 students, 56% FRL); Middle School # 4 (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 669 students, 54% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 4% / reading 25%, grade F, #389 of 399 statewide, top 98%, 942 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,819/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.