8016 Harbour Dr

New Baltimore, MI 48023

$67,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,693/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$638
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $236/mo
• Annual: $2,836/yr
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.12%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 2.53%
• Cash to close: $18,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $67k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in MI, #597 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.6% in New Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.