313 Crisantema St

Sullivan City, TX 78595

$125,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $874/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,397/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (30.1% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,369 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rosendo Benavides El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 285 students, 96% FRL); Lorenzo De Zavala Middle (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 606 students, 89% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 54% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.