3320 Bardstown Rd Apt V4

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40218

$39,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 559 sqft · Built 1960 · Condo · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$403
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $635/yr
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($635/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Goldsmith Elementary (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #615 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 70% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #214 of 217 statewide, top 99%, 892 students, 72% FRL); Seneca High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 1,309 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.