2007 Hermosillo Ave

Alton, TX 78572

$97,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,324/yr
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.92%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $97k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alton El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 390 students, 95% FRL); Rafael A Cantu J H (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 594 students, 91% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior walls — Severe weathering and staining.
• Major: Interior framing — Exposed framing indicates incomplete construction.
• Major: Electrical and plumbing — Listing mentions unfinished electrical and plumbing work.
• Major: HVAC and ductwork — Listing mentions unfinished ductwork and A/C installation.
• Major: Flooring — Exposed framing suggests subflooring is incomplete.
• Major: Drywall and painting — Exposed framing and unfinished interior suggest incomplete drywall and painting work.