871 SE 71st St

Keystone Heights, FL 32091

$129,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,066/yr
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bradford (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #57 of 73 in FL (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bradford Middle School (math 45% / reading 36%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 660 students, 70% FRL); Bradford High School (math 33% / reading 38%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 790 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bradford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.