620 Hilltop Cir

Wylie, TX 75098

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-106/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-106/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wylie ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #28 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: R F Hartman El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 541 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $315k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.