2722 Denver Rd

Sunset, TX 76270

$199,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Active · 191 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-59/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-59/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#837 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowie ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #469 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bowie Int (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 362 students, 60% FRL); Bowie J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 362 students, 53% FRL); Bowie H S (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 498 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.4% in Sunset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.