408 Toluca Ave

Alliance, NE 69301

$65,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,174/yr
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.93%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#34 in NE, #1,869 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Alliance Public Schools (town): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #105 of 111 in NE (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Box Butte County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Box Butte County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $65k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.