87 Rio Vis

Solvang, CA 93463

$495,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$825
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,182
• Net cashflow: $1,025/mo
• Annual: $12,299/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $436k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#96 in CA, #3,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, commute D, cost of living F.
• Solvang Elementary (town): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #104 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $495k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.3% in Solvang — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,628/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 394% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.