4715 Girton Ave

Shady Side, MD 20764

$239,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 612 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-192/mo
• Annual: $-2,302/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (24.1% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#205 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 17 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Shady Side — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.