2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
996 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,033/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$73
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$217
Net cashflow
$350/mo
Annual
$4,196/yr
Cap rate
11.89%
Cash-on-cash
19.98%
DSCR
1.89
1% rule
1.38%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lincoln School (math 0% / reading 2%, grade F, #2,052 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 727 students, 0% FRL); Reservoir Gifted School (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A+, #2 of 665 statewide, top 0%, 277 students, 0% FRL); Manual High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #659 of 693 statewide, top 100%, 656 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Peoria SD 150 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.5% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29