215 19th St SE

Minot, ND 58701

$475,000B

21 bd · 11.2 ba · 5,762 sqft · Built 1961 · MultiFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$622
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,647
• Net cashflow: $3,083/mo
• Annual: $36,990/yr
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.31%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 7 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive. Per door: $440/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $468k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#21 in ND, #3,953 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Minot 1 (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #24 of 53 in ND (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ward County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.4% in Minot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,843/mo this rent would consume 128% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1146% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.