2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$999/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$671
Tax + insurance
−$94
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$210
Net cashflow
$25/mo
Annual
$300/yr
Cap rate
6.53%
Cash-on-cash
0.84%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$35,812
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($300/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (21.9% below list).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $100k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fairlawn Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #790 of 994 statewide, top 81%, 422 students, 76% FRL); Mcgary Middle School (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #311 of 330 statewide, top 94%, 351 students, 81% FRL); William Henry Harrison High School (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #211 of 369 statewide, top 58%, 1,158 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 50% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $63k; list at $128k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-51TS701NPAN97S
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29