3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,208 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,811/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,400
Tax + insurance
−$763
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$590
Net cashflow
$-942/mo
Annual
$-11,304/yr
Cap rate
3.82%
Cash-on-cash
-8.82%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$128,134
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $458k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-942 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (29.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (38.6% below list).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $281k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,251 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.9% in Breinigsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-52GWV23C4ZJFH2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29