644 Southern Blvd NW

Warren, OH 44485

$124,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,313/yr
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.